TheGovernor11 Blog

Until I really get cooking again (and I may never get to that point), I’m just going to post all my plays on this one blog: TheGovernor11 Blog

UFC 150 Thoughts

Don’t know what I’m playing (been preoccupied with the olympics) but the Cerrone Guillard odds are ridiculous. At the very least Guillard is worth a value play. He’s faster and a better boxer than Cerrone. I’m real interested to see how Cerrone deals with the speed.

UFC 148 Quick Picks

Here’s what I’m thinking now.
3.25* Melvin Guillard vs. Fabrico Camoes
1* Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Thinking maybe a small value bet on Cung Le. I think Cote is going to win and might even stop Cung but I really thought that Cung would be the favorite. Then when I looked at the lines and saw that Cung was at +195, half unit drop might have to be done. Also looking at making a 1-2 unit parlay with Guillard and Chad Mendes. Maybe make a lottery parlay for like a .25 unit with all my picks. I’ll be back with a final card.

**UPDATE**

Locked in picks are:
3.25* Melvin Guillard -280 vs. Fabrico Camoes
1* Tito Ortiz +240 vs. Forrest Griffin
2* 4 Team Parlay -146

• Melvin Guillard -300 vs. Fabricio Camoes
• Chad Mendes -700 vs. Codey McKenzie
• Wladimir Klitschko -2500 vs. Tony Thompson
• Nonito Donaire -1550 vs. Jeffrey Mathebula

UFC on FX 4 Quick Picks

This event start crept up on me. I’m still riding high on Gray so let’s hope we don’t get Pacquiao’d again. If I had more time I’d make these plays but for non-wagers with a lot of chalk I’m liking Ross Pearson -215 and Rick Story -345. The one play I’ve made though is:

5*Gray Mayanrd -265 vs. Clay Guida

Pacquiao vs. Bradley Thoughts and Plays

I was going to write an actual article but went against it because what’s the point? Not only is Pacquiao going to win this fight but he’s going too handily. This will not be the close matchup that many boxing writers think it will be. Nor will this be the coming out party for Timothy Bradley. Sorry, it’s not happening.

People are seeing this as the perfect time for Manny Pacquiao to lose because of his last performance against Marquez, his personal issues, and his greater devotion to God. They don’t think he’s as hungry as he once was or cares about boxing as much as he once did. This may be the case but not just any boxer is going to beat him. If he was fighting Marquez for the fourth time or Mayweather right now then yes, there may be something to worry about. Their styles match-up great against Pacquiao’s. Bradley’s however does not.

Bradley’s aggressive and likes to throw. His style matches up much better against the other Megastar in boxing, Floyd Mayweather Against his current opponent however it’s a recipe for disaster (see Pacquiao vs. Hatton and the first 4 of Pacquiao vs. Cotto). Offensively he reminds more of a less polished/more reckless Miguel Cotto. Likes to throws the power jab, kind of lunges to get inside and likes to square up his body when throwing hooks. Almost every time that Bradley throws with “power” his body ends up square and/or he is winging punches. And I say “power” because he doesn’t have any.

This isn’t to say that Bradley’s a complete novice at boxing by any means. He’s excellent at slipping punches and does traditionally box in spots. But when push comes to shove he resorts to what he knows and what has worked his entire career: Being aggressive, coming forward, and throwing punches. He’s yet to lose a fight with this style so why change? I can promise you, like all other athletes, you don’t change something that’s working.

I honestly feel that Bradley thinks he can’t get KO’d and will outwork Pacquiao to victory. With this mentality, his lack of power, and his poor footwork after he throws is why I think Pacquiao will KO him. My only concern is that Bradley will get up from the first knockdown (or set of knockdowns) and do what Cotto did; fight to survive instead of fighting to win. But I don’t think fighting that way is in Bradley’s DNA which is why I like Pacquiao for 2* at +184 to win by KO-TKO-DQ. I’m also taking Pacquiao for 6.55* at -410 to beat Tim Bradley, Pacquiao for 3.45* at -435 to beat Tim Bradley, and have a 5* 2 Team Parlay with Pacquiao and Gray Maynard at -167

Pacquiao vs. Bradley 6-9-2012

I’ll add more to this post later tonight or tomorrow but I’m all over Pacquiao; especially with the lines where they’re at. With Bradley’s style I’m calling for a Pacman KO and a silence to all his critics.

UFC 146 Quick Picks

Told myself I wasn’t going to force anything so most of my plays tonight will be small.

• 3* Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
• 1.5 Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
• 1* Stipe Miocic vs. Shane Del rosario
• 1.5* Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig
• 1* CB Dolloway vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller
• 1* 3 Team Parlay Parlay
  • Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
  • Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
  • Edson Barbozavs. Jamie Varner

Final Results from 5-5-2012

Definitely not my best showing. Minus the foolish parlay I would’ve been positive. Minus the added plays I would’ve been positive. Adding Alan Belcher, John Hathaway, and Danny Castillo I would’ve been positive. Oh well, what can you do? A little rusty tonight but that’s what happens when you’re away for too long. Next month plus is packed with fights so it’ll be quick bounce back.

3* Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz Goes 5 Round Distance -175…loss
2.5* Koscheck vs. Hendricks Goes 3 Round Distance -165…WIN +1.52
.97* Mayweather wins by unanimous decision +114…WIN +1.11
2.42* Mayweather wins by unanimous decision +108…WIN +2.61
1* 10 Team Parlay +2058…loss
1* Josh Koscheck +125 vs. Johny Hendricks…loss
1* Jim Miller -170 vs. Nate Diaz…loss

3-4 -.76 units

Looking ahead

With a break in the action I’m continuing to look ahead at future events. There are some definite gimmes in here. Like as close to locks as you can get. Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida is one that definitely jumps out. I give Guida 0 chance of winning. Like zero. That’s a least 5* without a doubt regardless of the odds. Vitor Belfort vs. Wanderlei Silva is another bare minimum 4* fight. Belfort is still in his prime (albeit the end) while Wandy is just hanging on.

Scrolling down BestFightOdds.com right now and just gonna throw out fights that jump out to me. There’s are all just initial reaction and not actual plays but these are usually the way I’ll go. Little film study will always confirm or deny if I’m right. All odds are from 5Dimes But without furhter ado here we go:

UFC on FUEL TV 3: Korean Zombie vs. Poirier
May 15th

Donald Cerrone -270 vs. Jeremy Stephens
Not only liking Cerrone to win but also as fight of the night. A little play on Cerrone for submisison of the night wouldn’t be bad either because if it goes to the ground he’ll sub him. Got to see the rest of the card (site only has odds for two fights) but I’m too lazy to go check it out right now.

Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Cormier
May 19

Josh Barnett -125 vs. Daniel Cormier
This is definitely one those first glance picks but I think film study is only going to confirm my thinking that Barnett is going to destroy Cormier. Cormier is the better wrestler but not the better grappler. Is he really going to chance going to the ground with Barnett? If he’s on top it’s all good but if he ends up on bottom he’s done. Definitely have to watch the weigh-ins to see how in shape Barnett looks. This could change the amount to bet on Barnett. But even if he’s out of shape I’m still not that worried because Cormier’s gas tank is awful as well. Straight up Cormier is just lazy. Even as an olympic wrestler he had trouble with his weight because he didn’t want to train.

Gilbert Melendez -495 vs. Joshs Thompson +350
May be some value in Thompson but more likely this is one of those plays that you just throw in a parlay to bolster your odds.

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir
May 26

Junior Dos Santos -565 vs. Frank Mir
A little worried about how JDS will look on the ground if Mir happens to take him down but I think it’s much more likely that JDS will just knock Mir the fuck out. Gonna wait for this line to drop though. It’ll happen. People like Mir and the UFC will show Mir’s knockouts of Kongo, Minatauro, and Crocop to make it look like he has a chance on his feet. He doesn’t.

Cain Velasquez -420 vs. Antonio Silva
Cain’s got a shitty chin. We know this. He’s kind of like Eddie Alvarez. He’ll get clipped and dropped but unless you got major power (a la JDS) he’ll recover. This is really his only flaw because the dude’s a beast. He’ll run house over Silva and get back (as Dana White says)”in the mix”.

Mark Hunt vs. Stefan Struve
Screams fight of the night and betting Hunt for KO of the night.

TUF 15 Finale
June 1

Martin Kampmann +175 vs. Jake Ellenberger
I’m a big fan or Kampmann and his skill set and like where the line is now. Feel like his line should be closer to +125. Definitely need to look over some things for this fight but like Kampmann as a dog. Boy’s legit.

UFC On FX 4: Guida vs. Maynard
June 22

Gray Maynard -425 vs. Clay Guida
Not going to say much about this fight because it’s going to be a one sided beating. At worse it’ll be Maynard by one sided UD. Probably going to bet this one soon as the line keeps rising. Some places still have Maynard at -325 though. But in any case, I’ll max bet this regardless of what the line goes too.

UFC 147: Belfort vs. Silva II
June 23

Vitor Belfort -360 vs. Wanderlei Silva
I think I said this earlier somewhere but this is guy at the end of his prime vs a guy at the end of his career. Another max bet play here.

UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen 2
July 7

Stacked card and some interesting plays. Anderson Silva (-250) seems like it’s too easy and I’m missing something. Chael Sonnen (+210) did dominate and should have won the first fight but he was also jacked up on steroids. And he looked awful in his last fight so maybe Sonnen minus PEDs makes this a completley different fight.

There might be some solid value in Tito Ortiz (+250) vs. Forrest Griffin (-325). This is Tito’s last fight and you know he’s motivated as all hell to go out a winner. Forrest on the other hand hasn’t looked hungry in his last four fights and seems to just be fighting for paychecks. He’s no longer the LHW version of Rich Franklin that just outworks and wants it more than the other guy. Feeling a small play on Tito would be worth it.

UFC 149: Aldo vs. Koch
July 21

Thiago Alves -350 vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
If this fight wasn’t so far away I would’ve added it to my mega parlay. This fight screams beating all over it. If Akiyama would take it to the ground that’d be one thing but how often does this Judoka actully used his Judo in a fight? Rarely if ever because he likes to stand and bang. It’s stupid.

UFC on Fox 3 and Mayweather vs. Cotto

These are the official play so far. Odds have actually come down a little too but this is what I got them at.

3* Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz Goes 5 Round Distance -175
2.5* Koscheck vs. Hendricks Goes 3 Round Distance -165
.97* Mayweather wins by unanimous decision +114
2.42* Mayweather wins by unanimous decision +108

Mayweather bets are weird because 5dimes glitched on me, then the odds changed, then i hit the max amount I could bet. But what I was trying to do was a 4 unit bet for Pretty Boy to win by unanimous decision. I just don’t see PBF taking Cotto out. Doesn’t hit hard enough and doesn’t throw enough. I thought about taking Mayweather winning by any decision at -140 but it would be giving away money. The styles that these two fight there won’t be a clash of heads to stop the fight on a cut so a technical decision won’t be happening.

Last bet made so far and it’s a fun one. Aim small miss small, right?

1* 10 Team Parlay +2058

• Mayweather wins by unanimous decision +108
• Amir Khan -450 vs. Lamont Peterson
• Mikkel Kessler -700 vs. Allan Green
• Manny Pacquiao -450 vs. Timothy Bradley
• Junior Dos Santos -565 vs. Frank Mir
• Cain Velasquez -420 vs. Antonio Silva
• Gray Maynard -425 vs. Clay Guida
• Vitor Belfort -360 vs. Wanderlei Silva
• Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz Goes 5 Round Distance -165
• Koscheck vs. Hendricks Goes 3 Round Distance -155